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FA/FC and Floor Trader spotlight economic outlook

Friday, January 10, 2020

[Phoenix, Ariz.] Flooring America/Flooring Canada and Floor Trader Connextion 2020 also brought to stage Connor Lokar, program economist for ITR Economics, who revealed to attendees the forecast for 2021 and beyond.

First, Lokar looked back at 2019, noting that there was slow growth, intensifying over the fourth quarter and into 2020. But, he added, “I’m going to inject optimism and certainty. You need to be thinking about 2021 and be prepared to attack 2021. What have you addressed and what have you not? Get prepared in 2020 for growth to come next year.”

While he admitted that “the Great Recession was a pervasive event,” he added that now, “there is domestic political turmoil, uncertainty and mind-numbing noise this year. But expect underwhelming 4th quarter report, below 2 percent and possibly negative first quarter and there will be a lot of fear about that. It is a tangible slow-down. That sluggishness extends through the first half this year and then we approach greener pastures and get ready for 2021. We will be riding a ship of acceleration in the second half of this year.”

Where does his confidence come from? “Leading indicators — empirical, rigid data points. The data is telling you to load up. An overwhelming majority of voices are telling us a rise is coming.”

There were other points of note Lokar shared to give a better understanding to future economic views. While 2020, he said, will be an interesting year, he also said the 2020s will be an excellent time to buy a home. “Housing is back on track for 2020,” he added.

While Lokar pointed to numerous upbeat indicators for the next decade, he also predicted that 2030, however, will be difficult and possibly a depression. “We see severe economic pain in 2030s,” he said, adding the depression drivers include demographics, health care costs, entitlements, inflation and U.S. national debt. /Uploads/Public/ConnorLokarFAFCStory.jpg